方括号与概率

两方石碑,两种方括号,两个模型。编者的判断与模型的预测,逐处并置。

本页是课程注释幻灯第 2.3 节的实验档案;幻灯 s2-17a 至 s2-17n 各页给出课堂语境与讲者注,页内导航右端可跳转。

本地实跑 2026-08-26 · 门户复测 2026-08-28 · Ithaca 与 Aeneas 本地权重 · beam 100 · 含连书对照八组

先认识两种方括号

[ 单括号 ]石面因残损而失去的字。编者据语言、格式与平行例补出。
[[ 双括号 ]]古人有意凿去的字。编者据历史与官衔复原。

两种括号里的字,石头上都没有;补出它们的历来是编者。下面把同样的问题交给模型:希腊碑给 Ithaca,拉丁碑给 Aeneas,每一个数字都来自本次实跑。

先说前提:这两方石碑都在模型的训练语料里,而且编者补的字以明文在内。这一点须在读所有结果之前先行说明。

第一章 · 希腊碑

IG I³ 36 = ML 71 = OR 156 · 雅典娜胜利女神庙女祭司决议(二) · 公元前 424/3 年 · Ithaca

一方换过手的石碑

五步 · 可用左右键

第 1 步 · 认识这块石头

刻到第六行,换了一个人

IG I³ 36 石碑照片

课件第 8 讲第 26 页,图 2(ML 71 = IG I³ 36 = OR 156)

决议规定:司库们每年塔尔盖利昂月,付给雅典娜胜利女神庙的女祭司五十德拉克马。

石头不完整,文本却不长。要紧的在笔迹:第一位刻工刻完前五行和第六行开头,第六行第四格被刮去一个字母之后,换了第二位刻工接手。两人拼法不同:前一位用阿提卡老拼法,不写 η 和 ω;后一位用爱奥尼亚拼法,两个字母都用(Rhodes 2018, 155;OR 156 注)。

一块石头,两只手,一条看得见的分界线。

第二章 · 拉丁碑

CIL 14.4393 · 奥斯提亚,献给凯撒迪阿杜梅尼亚努斯 · 公元 217/8 年 · Aeneas

一方经除名凿毁的石碑

六步 · 可用左右键

第 1 步 · 认识这块石头

公元 218 年 6 月的除名凿毁

CIL 14.4393 石碑照片,可见凿除带

课件第 8 讲第 35 页(inv. 19787),第 1、3、6 至 7 行的凿除带清晰可见

奥斯提亚的消防守望队为小凯撒迪阿杜梅尼亚努斯立碑,他是皇帝马克里努斯之子。一年后父子兵败被处死,元老院下令除名,两人的名字被从各地铭文中凿去。这方碑上有四处凿痕:家族名两处、凯撒名一处、皇帝名一处。

照片上的凹带就是凿除的痕迹。编者在双括号里复原的,正是这四处。

第三章 · 连书实验

同一块石头,两种写法 · 由课堂上的门户实验引出 · Ithaca,八次实跑

模型读的究竟是哪一份文本

四步 · 可用左右键

第 1 步 · 问题从课堂来

石头上没有空格

课堂实验把 IG I³ 36 去掉部分空格输入门户,模型给出了几处希腊语里不可能的答案。这引出一个更准的问题:古典雅典的列刻式铭文是连书,字母在网格上一个挨一个,词与词之间没有空格;而模型的训练语料来自 PHI 的编者转写,词是分开的。清洗管线剥掉了方括号,却留下了空格。

那么模型学会的是石头的写法,还是编者的写法?把同一段文本各写一遍:一遍照语料分词(分书),一遍照石头连书,同样的缺口各问一次。

分书:εν τηι στηλ?? αποδιδοναι τος κωλακρ???? οι αν…
连书:…εντηιστηλ??αποδιδοναιτοςκωλακρ?????ιαν…

附录 · 更多实跑与方法

十例常规方括号对照 · 语料污染核查 · 一个空格的控制案例

语料污染核查(38 例实跑)。Ithaca 与 Aeneas 的训练语料就是 PHI 与 LED,也正是各家校勘本的来源。逐例回查:

训练语料已含编者补文 · 27 部分收录,补文不在 · 3 未查到匹配记录 · 8

全部 38 例首选一致 28 例。污染样本一致率 74%,未污染样本 75%,就这批数据看记忆没有明显抬高成绩;样本仅 8 例干净,不足以下定论。第一版查漏曾把 12 例漏判为干净,改用 PHI 编号权威比对后更正。查不动的要记为未检验,不能记为干净。

展开十例常规对照(含三处分歧与完整候选)
SEG IX 8, ll. 65-66 (Cyrene Edict IV)

SEG IX 8 = IRCyr2020 C.101 (FIRA I2 68; Oliver, Greek Constitutions 8-12); EpiDoc file magalia matrix-hub gove

编者:αὶ 模型首选:αι(Ithaca) 一致 未见于训练语料
候选、输入原样与依据

αικην επαρχηαν υπεξειρημενων των υποδικων κεφαλης υπερ ων ος αν την επαρχηαν διακατεχη αυτος διαγεινωσκειν κ?? ισταναι η συνβουλιον κριτων παρεχειν οφειλει υπερ δε των λοιπων πραγματων παντων ελληνας κριτας διδοσθαι αρεσκει ει μ

1αι0.873编者
2αθ0.032
3ατ0.018
4ακ0.002
5αν0.002
6τλ0.002
7αλ0.002
8τι0.002
9αδ0.002
10 00.001

编者依据:No apparatus note at this point in the edition. The supplement completes καί at the end of l. 66; grounds are word-completion plus the required coordination of the two infinitives διαγεινώσκειν ... ἱστάναι.

读法:Function word in a fully formulaic legal coordination. Ithaca gives it 0.873 with a clean decay to the runner-up (0.032). The easiest class of bracket: the editor and the model are answering the same low-entropy question.

CIL VI 1527, col. II l. 55 (Laudatio Turiae)

CIL VI 1527 + 31670 + 37053 = ILS 8393; EpiDoc file governance/laudatio-turiae_epidoc.xml

编者:em 模型首选:ia(Aeneas) 编者非首选 未见于训练语料
候选、输入原样与依据

lepidi consulis collegae praesentis pedibus aduoluta humi non modo non adleuata sed tracta et seruil?? in modum rapsata liuoribus corporis repleta firmissimo animo eum admoneres edicti caesaris cum gratulatione restitu

1ia0.353
2is0.332
3la0.155
4es0.144
5em0.050编者
6et0.028
7ea0.014
8as0.007
9am0.007
10li0.006

编者依据:The edition prints the supplement without a dedicated apparatus note at l. 55 (the listApp entry at loc. 30 documents a different, virtue-catalogue slot, restored "on parallel-pool grounds from the other laudationes mulierum (Mantzilas 2017)"). Grounds here are idiomatic: seruilem in modum is a fixed adverbial phrase requiring the accusative singular.

读法:DIVERGENCE. Aeneas ranks the editor 5th at 0.050, preferring seruil[ia] (0.353) and seruil[is] (0.332). Every one of its top four is a morphologically possible Latin ending; what it does not command is the frozen idiom X in modum, which fixes the case. The editor is not out-guessing the model on letters but applying a phraseological constraint.

CIL VIII 11451, l. 14 (SC de nundinis saltus Beguensis)

CIL VIII 11451 (+ 270 + add.); EpiDoc file governance/sc-beguensis_epidoc.xml

编者:or 模型首选:or(Aeneas) 一致 未见于训练语料
候选、输入原样与依据

icorum lucili africani c larissimi v iri qui petunt ut ei permittatur in provincia afr ica regione beguensi territorio musulami??um ad casas nundinas iiii nonas novemb res et xii k alendas dec embres ex eo omnibus mensibus iiii non as et xii k alendas su

1or0.910编者
2o 0.004
3 r0.003
4nr0.002
5on0.002
6ar0.002
7sr0.002
8ox0.002
9oy0.002
10oe0.001

编者依据:No specific apparatus note; the edition supplies the genitive plural of the ethnic Musulamii, the tribe named as the territory-holder in this document.

读法:Proper-noun morphology. Aeneas returns or at 0.910. The name is common enough in African epigraphy that the model has the pattern; agreement here is cheap.

AE 1976, 653, l. 14 (edict of Sex. Sotidius Strabo Libuscidianus, Sagalassos)

AE 1976, 653 (SEG 26, 1392; EDCS-09300547); EpiDoc file governance/sotidius-strabo-edict_epidoc.xml

编者:us 模型首选:us(Aeneas) 一致 未见于训练语料
候选、输入原样与依据

cormasa et conanam. neque tamen omnibu s huius rei ius erit sed procuratori principis optimi filioque eius usu dato ??que ad carra decem aut pro singulis carris mulorum trium aut pro singulis mulis asinorum binorum quibus eodem te

1us0.477编者
2ne0.233
3is0.117
4at0.104
5ad0.027
6ei0.023
7ae0.018
8si0.015
9eo0.011
10id0.011

编者依据:No apparatus note at this point (the edition's listApp documents other lines, e.g. the engraver's omission at l. 5 and Frisch's correction at l. 7). Grounds: usque ad + accusative governs the following carra decem.

读法:Aeneas agrees at 0.477, but with a genuinely divided field: [ne] 0.233, [is] 0.117, [at] 0.104. The lowest-confidence agreement in the set, and a good illustration that a correct top-1 can still rest on a thin margin.

CIL XI 1420, l. 7 (decretum Pisanum for Lucius Caesar)

CIL XI 1420-1421 (ILS 139-140; Ehrenberg & Jones 68-69); EpiDoc file governance/decreta-pisana_epidoc.xml

编者:is 模型首选:is(Aeneas) 一致 部分收录,补文不在
候选、输入原样与依据

augusti caesaris patris patriae pontificis maximi tribuniciae potestatis xxv fili auguris consulis designati princip?? iuventutis patroni coloniae nostrae q. d. e. r. f. p. d. e. r. i. c. cum senatus populi romani inter c

1is0.914编者
2um0.003
3es0.002
4us0.002
5ps0.001
6ib0.001
7im0.001
8ii0.001
90s0.001
10rs0.001

编者依据:No dedicated apparatus note. The supplement completes the imperial title princeps iuventutis in the genitive, in agreement with the surrounding titulature of Lucius Caesar.

读法:Titulature is the most predictable material in Latin epigraphy. Aeneas returns is at 0.914 with the runner-up three orders of magnitude down (0.0025). Note the corpus status: the inscription is in the Aeneas training corpus but that corpus does NOT carry these restored letters, so the model is completing the title, not reciting it.

Welles, RC 18-20, doc. A ll. 1-2 (Antiochus II and the sale of Pannou-kome to Laodice)

C. B. Welles, Royal Correspondence in the Hellenistic Period (1934), nos. 18-20; EpiDoc file governance/welles

编者:ρά 模型首选:οη(Ithaca) 编者非首选 训练语料已含补文
候选、输入原样与依据

βασιλευς αντιοχος μητροφανει χαιρειν πεπ??καμεν λαοδικηι παννου κωμην και τημ βαριν και την προσουσαν χωραν τηι κωμηι ορος τηι τε ζελειτιδι χωραι και τηι κυζικηνηι και τηι

1οη0.884
2ρα0.776编者
3οα0.071
4τα0.014
5λα0.012
6ομ0.008
7ογ0.006
8οι0.005
9κα0.003
10να0.003

编者依据:The edition prints πεπ[ρά]καμεν, the perfect of πιπράσκω, "we have sold" - the operative verb of the whole dossier, which is a royal land-sale. The word is split across ll. 1/2 (lb break="no").

读法:DIVERGENCE, and the most instructive one. Ithaca prefers πεπ[οη]καμεν (0.884) over the editor's πεπ[ρά]καμεν (0.776) - a near-tie between two real Greek perfects. πεποιήκαμεν "we have made" is by far the commoner verb in the corpus; πεπράκαμεν is what the document is FOR. The editor is reading the legal act, the model is reading letter frequency. Note also that this text, restoration included, is in Ithaca's training corpus and the model still misses it.

I.Sicily ISic002987, l. 7 (civic accounts, Taormina/Tauromenion)

I.Sicily ISic002987 (TM 645339; DOI 10.5281/zenodo.4387873); the file's apparatus states "Text of Manganaro 19

编者:τα 模型首选:τα(Ithaca) 一致 未见于训练语料
候选、输入原样与依据

ιλια ταλαντα λοιπον επτα ενενηκοντα λιτραι πεντε ικοσι διακοσια τρισχιλια μυρια ταλαντα ??μιαις εσοδος τεσσαρακοντα λιτραι οκτακισ χιλια δισμυρια ταλαντα εξοδος μια τρια κοντα λ

1τα0.912编者
2τι0.001
3τδ0.001
4σα0.001
5το0.001
6τ 0.001
7τρ0.001
8δα0.001
9ωα0.001
10λα0.001

编者依据:No per-line apparatus note beyond the edition statement. The supplement yields ταμίαις, "to the treasurers", the dative plural that heads the account block.

读法:Ithaca returns τα at 0.912 with the runner-up at 0.0014. A financial document with heavy internal repetition gives the model exactly the redundancy it exploits best.

I.Sicily ISic003610, ll. 5-6 (Christian epitaph, Syracuse)

I.Sicily ISic003610 (TM 645683; DOI 10.5281/zenodo.4388821); the file's apparatus states "Text of Rizzone as a

编者:κα 模型首选:ημ(Ithaca) 编者非首选 未见于训练语料
候选、输入原样与依据

καρδαμαν χρηστος και αμεμπτος ετων ογδοηκοντα μηνας δε ??

1ημ0.126
2κα0.066编者
3μη0.038
4ετ0.037
5πα0.035
6χα0.029
7εν0.027
8αν0.026
9επ0.022
10το0.022

编者依据:The EpiDoc encodes the whole sequence as <num value="10">: the editor reads δέ + [κα] as the single numeral δέκα, split across ll. 5/6 (lb break="no") with an ivy-leaf ornament standing INSIDE the word.

读法:DIVERGENCE, with a control that explains it. As fed, Ithaca ranks the editor 2nd (κα 0.066) behind ημ (0.127). The ivy-leaf ornament canonicalises to a space, so the model saw "μηνας δε ??" and read δέ as a separate particle. Re-fed WITHOUT that space ("μηνας δε??"), Ithaca returns κα at 0.712 - top-1, agreeing with the editor. The editor's advantage here is not linguistic but material: knowing that an ornament can sit inside a word, and that the layout does not mark a word boundary.

I.Sicily ISic030278, l. 19 (honorific decree for Nemenios, copy B)

I.Sicily ISic030278 (Decree in honour of Nemenios, copy B); the file's apparatus states "Text from autopsy" (c

编者:ὔνοιαν 模型首选:υνοιαν(Ithaca) 一致 未见于训练语料
候选、输入原样与依据

ανδρειας και καλοκαγαθιας και τας των προγονων αρετας δικαιον δε εστι τους αγαθους των ανδρων και ταν αυτων ε?????? ενδεικνυμενων τιμαν και προεδριαν τυνχανειν και αθανατον αυτων μναμαν παρα τοις ευ πα θοντ

1υνοιαν0.726编者
2υνοιας0.004
3πι των0.002
4υνοιαι0.002
5λπιδων0.001
6πι ταν0.001
7ιρεσιν0.001
8υωχιαν0.001
9υναιαν0.001
10πιεικη0.001

编者依据:No per-line note; the edition rests on autopsy. The supplement gives εὔνοιαν, "goodwill", in the standard honorific collocation εὔνοιαν ἐνδείκνυσθαι.

读法:The longest supplement in the set (6 characters) and still a confident hit: Ithaca returns υνοιαν at 0.726, with υνοιας and υνοιαι further down - the model has the lexeme and is choosing among its endings. Decree formulae are the model's strongest ground.

I.Sicily ISic001516, final line (epitaph of Euskia, Syracuse)

I.Sicily ISic001516 (TM 645016; PHI 333765; DOI 10.5281/zenodo.4354259); the file's apparatus states "Text of

编者:λητος 模型首选: και (Ithaca) 编者不在前十 部分收录,补文不在
候选、输入原样与依据

ιος ουσα ευχα ριστουσα τω ειδιω αν δρι πολλας ευχαρισ τιας α ω ευομει?????

1 και 0.009
2 ετου0.008
3 αγαθ0.007
4 χαρι0.007
5ω τω 0.006
6 θεω 0.006
7 υπερ0.006
8 κυρι0.006
9 χαιρ0.005
10 ευτυ0.005

编者依据:No per-line note. The supplement completes the epithet εὐομείλητος, "affable", the last word of the epitaph; the preceding μεί is carried by a ligature (<hi rend="ligature">), which is why the editor can be sure of the stem.

读法:DIVERGENCE, and a total one: the editor's reading is absent from Ithaca's entire top-10, and the model's best guess is the non-word " και " at 0.009 - two orders of magnitude below its confidence on the other cases. The supplement sits at the very END of the text, so there is no right-hand context at all, and εὐομείλητος is a rare compound. When the model has nothing, its own confidence says so; this is the clearest case in the set of a bracket the editor fills from lexical knowledge the model does not have.

控制案例:一个空格改变了答案。I.Sicily ISic003610:编者把 δέ 与补出的 κα 读为一个数词 δέκα(十个月),这个词被一处常春藤叶装饰断在词内又跨了行。规范化把装饰变成空格后,模型把 δέ 当成独立小品词,编者读法只排第二(0.066);去掉那个空格重跑,模型给出 κα,0.712,首选。编者在这里的优势与语言无关:他知道装饰可以立在词中间。所谓模型出错,有多少其实是文本送进模型时的序列化造成的。第 6 节讲编码保住的正是这类信息。

方法与限度

模型DeepMind predictingthepast:Ithaca(希腊语)、Aeneas(拉丁语),本地权重实跑,beam 100
两方主碑IG I³ 36:括号位置逐一核对 Osborne 与 Rhodes 2017 校勘本(馆藏 PDF 第 339 页);CIL 14.4393:以课件第 8 讲第 35 页所印双括号文本为准,LED 存文(TM 254776 = EDR106390)按其原样输入
附录十例取自 82 件治理文书 EpiDoc 与 4,823 件 I.Sicily 铭文的编者补文;补文前后 130 字符内无其他编辑成分
掩码问号逐字符标长度;文本按各模型训练语料同款规范化